Sumbra Terminal

Macro Sumbra Index

–

Regime probability

decoded from the cross-asset panel

Liquidity drivers

Macro Sumbra Index — trailing window

shaded bands = decoded regime · solid = index · dashed = mean pairwise correlation

Conditional correlation

trailing-window correlation across the panel

strong co-movehedge / negative

Sensitivity to the tide (β)

per-asset beta to Δindex, normalized to SPX = 1

Asset	β	exposure

Hidden Markov regime model

3 latent states

Transition matrix A

P(s_t | s_t-1) — estimated from the regime sequence

Regime history · 36 weeks

onneutraloff

Regime statistics

measured conditional behaviour of the cross-asset panel

Regime	Mean ρ̄	Ann. vol	Share of time	Avg duration

Latest report

model output for the most recent epoch

Index & regime are computed from live market data. The on-chain contract is not yet deployed — operator/finalization fields are testnet placeholders.

Oracle parameters

protocol design · testnet

Settlement chainBase (L2)

Contractnot deployed

Reporting epoch1 day

Challenge window6 h

Operators1 (single signer)

Verificationoptimistic

Recent feed

computed report per epoch (index & regime are real)

Epoch	Regime	Index	P(on)	Operator	Status

Pipeline

how each report would reach the chain

Off-chain

data pipeline

model engine

operator node

→

Bridge

signed report

{regime, index, hash, sig}

→

On-chain · L2

SumbraOracle.sol

store · challenge · finalize

System architecture

how the feed is computed and served

Data refresh

how the dashboard stays current — no manual refresh